My Picks Record:
Last Week: 4-2
Overall: 48-24
PLAYOFF CLINCHING SCENARIOS
I started looking at this and realized there are A LOT of ways some teams can get in and for others much fewer. I don’t have the time to go through every scenario so take a look yourself and figure out what you are rooting for this weekend. I do know if you are a 7 win team then you are going to need to have at least one of the 8 win teams lose AND You are going to have to beat them in the tie breaker of points scored. With that said, you are going to want the teams that have the lowest points scored to lose (DaUnderdog, BIGBOY! & pack slayer). As mentioned rather then listing out the scenarios, I figured I would use %’s to tell you how I see it if a team wins or loses and what that means for their playoff chances.
- Bossman with a win
– Playoffs = 100%
– First round bye = 99.9%
Bossman with a loss
– Playoffs = 99.9%
– First round bye = 35% - Pack Attack with a win
– Playoffs = 100%
– First round bye = 98%
Pack Attack with a loss
– Playoffs = 95%
– First round bye = 10% - Rapids Plungers with a win
– Playoffs = 100%
– First round bye = 50%
Rapids Plungers with a loss
– Playoffs = 50%
– First round bye = 5% - DaUnderdog with a win
– Playoffs = 100%
– First round bye = 20%
DaUnderdog with a loss
– Playoffs = 15%
– First round bye = 1% - BIGBOY! with a win
– Playoffs = 100%
– First round bye =10%
BIGBOY! with a loss
– Playoffs = 5%
– First round bye = 1% - pack slayer with a win
– Playoffs = 100%
– First round bye = 5%
pack slayer with a loss
– Playoffs = 4%
– First round bye = 1% - Starrfavrerodg with a win (eliminated with a loss)
– Playoffs = 65% - Sportsfreak with a win (eliminated with a loss)
– Playoffs = 55% - teamAlaska with a win (eliminated with a loss)
– Playoffs = 15%
ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFF CONTENTION
1. HHH
2. PackerFANatic7
3. U Don’t Know
4. Big Papa
5. 16hrs Ahead of You!!
Pack Attack (8-5) vs teamAlaska (7-6)
Here we go! Pack Attack won this matchup in Week 1 by a 11 points and now teamAlaska is in a do or die scenario where if they want any shot at the playoffs they have to win this one and get some help! Pack Attack has one starter on a bye (T McBride) but outside of that for the first time since Week 4 they look to be fully healthy with the expected return of J Jefferson. teamAlaska has a solid roster and one that if they can make the playoffs could make some noise! It all starts with a win here and then hoping for some help!
Prediction:
Check out the Yahoo predictions for this one!
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 21
- Record: Advantage Pack Attack at 14-7
- PPG Avg: Advantage Pack Attack 123.59 to 108.23
16hrs Ahead of You!! (6-7) vs pack slayer (8-5)
pack slayer got one of the biggest wins of any team all season last week which I mentioned in the recap. Now they have to finish the deal with a win here. It’s that simple for them as if they win they are in the playoffs. A loss and things get really dicey as they would need a lot of things go their way for them to still get in. 16hrs ahead of you would love to finish the season with wins over two potential playoff teams and that would push them to a .500 record. That would be just the 2nd time in the last 12 seasons that they finished at .500 or above. Can pack slayer get back to back wins for the first time since weeks 7 & 8 or will 16hrs crush their playoff dreams?
Prediction:
The most important game of the season and you have to deal with a bye week and injuries! That’s the case for pack slayer as J. Conner who was one of the big reasons they pulled off the win last week is now on a bye. D. Douglas one of their starting WR’s is out again due to a concussion which may not be a huge loss as they have his backup in D. Parker. Their are 4 players that are going to determine this game for pack slayer (Tua, G. Wilson, Olave & Barkley). In order for them to win I really think they need 80 points out of this group. 16hrs is at full strength and they have L. Jackson who can win games almost by himself but you know what I am going to go with pack slayer to keep that momentum and find a way to win this game. pack slayer gets the win and clinches a playoff spot.
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 13
- Record: Advantage pack slayer at 10-3
- PPG Avg: Advantage pack slayer 115.61 to 97.84
Big Papa (5-8) vs Rapids Plungers (8-5)
The reigning champ is not going to be able to defend their title this year and that’s ok because well very few have actually done it. I am sure they are not thinking that is ok as once they got their first championship they are certainly wanting more. They struggled to find consistency this year and after week 6 when they had just won 3 in a row it looked like maybe they could actually make a run at this thing but it just never materialized. Now they get to try and play the role of spoiler as Rapids Plungers is coming into this one needing a win to lock in a playoff berth! Rapids Plungers got the best of this in Week 1 can they do it again to lock in that playoff berth and possibly a first round bye?
Prediction:
This one is interesting. Rapids Plungers just seems to always make the playoffs so we all just expect it. Could Big Papa beat them and push them out of the playoffs altogether? I actually think this game could be closer then most may think but I have a hard time believing Rapids Plungers losses a game that could decide whether they get to the playoffs or not. I like Rapids Plungers to win and book yet another playoff berth.
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 16
- Record: Tied at 8-8
- PPG Avg: Advantage Rapids Plungers 121.99 to 119.49
BIGBOY! (8-5) vs PackerFANatic7 (5-8)
It has been crickets on the BIGBOY! front over the last two weeks. My multiple texts got no response. I did get a chance to talk with their coach prior to their loss to HHH and they seemed confident in their team. Now after losses to the previously winless HHH team and DaUnderdog in consecutive weeks they are left in a must win situation just to make the playoffs. They now go up against a PackerFANatic7 team that like I mentioned in the recap last week is playing some of the best football of any team right now despite only having 5 wins on the season! Can PackerFANatic7 end on a high note by knocking BIGBOY! out of the playoffs or will BIGBOY! shut up the doubters for at least one week and make it back to the playoffs after missing out last season?
Prediction:
I have picked against this BIGBOY! team a decent amount this season and you have heard me say that I thought they have been over performing from a win / loss perspective and unfortunately for them it is starting to show in the final weeks of the season. I think this is going to be a close one, I expect a back and forth battle. I don’t expect that C Watson plays which is a blow to PackerFANatic7 as he has been playing really well the last 3 weeks. I fully expect this game to not be decided until Monday night when BIGBOY! has J Waddle going and PackerFANatic7 has W Levis and either W. Robinson or C Watson. This is the toughest one for me to call because on paper I think PackerFANatic7 wins this one but BIGBOY! has a tendency to win games like this. I am going with my gut and picking BIGBOY! to find a way to win and get back to the playoffs.
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 7
- Record: Advantage BIGBOY! at 4-3
- PPG Avg: Advantage BIGBOY! 121.66 to 114.47
Bossman (8-5) vs HHH (1-12)
Bossman comes into this one having lost 3 straight games and despite the fact that they technically haven’t clinched a playoff spot they really have. No one is catching them in points scored so they will win the tie breaker if needed. However, this is a big game because they want to ensure themselves of that first round bye. They got beat up a bit last week with Kirk and B Robinson going down to injury and now B Robinson is on a bye and Kirk is out. HHH has one game left to finish out their season and of course they get to go up against the current #1 team in the league. With the win Bossman will get to 9 wins but two of those would have been against HHH. That means that 22% of their wins this season were against the worst team in the league! I am not 100% sure what that means other then it sure helps them in their quest for a first round bye. So does Bossman break out of their 3 game slump or can HHH do the improbable and get their 2nd win of the season?
Prediction:
I don’t see a way for HHH to get a win here. Bossman has been struggling yes but they have failed to score over 100 points just one time all season and that was a 99 point effort in week 6. HHH has only got over 100 4 times all year. I think Bossman wins this one rather easily to secure that #1 overall spot.
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 18
- Record: Advantage Bossman at 10-8
- PPG Avg: Advantage Bossman 110.37 to 109.05
DaUnderdog (8-5) vs Sportsfreak (7-6)
There are a lot of good games this week and every game has some type of playoff implications attached to it BUT this one right here just may be the best one of them all. The stakes are about as high as they get. If DaUnderdog wins they are in and Sportsfreak is officially out. If Sportsfreak wins and Starrfavrerodg loses they are in OR if they win and outscore Starrfavrerodg by 7 points this week they are also in. DaUnderdog could technically still get in with a loss but they would need some help. The range of outcomes for DaUnderdog are crazy as they are still in play for a first round bye with a win but they could also miss the playoffs entirely with a loss! Sportsfreak knows their task and that is win and win big. This one is going to be fun to watch!
Prediction:
The way this game is setup is that there is going to be some major drama come Monday night. Sportsfreak has the guy, the closer, the one guy that can put up 40 at any given time going on Monday night football and that is T Hill. What a great way to close out your regular season knowing that no matter how far you may be behind you got that one guy who could close the gap. DaUnderdog has R. Doubs going Monday night and not sure on the flex yet but possibly two Packers receivers going? Either way this one is coming down to the wire. If there was ever a spot for a QB to go off it is D. Prescott this week. He has been outstanding and that Eagles D has been horrible against the pass. He should have a monster game. C Godwin has been complaining about his role and anytime these star WR’s get in the news for this it’s amazing how next game they get 7 to 8 targets and 100 yards. Maybe Godwin has his best week of the season? Zeke should be in line for a big day now that Stevenson is out. The matchups for Sportsfreak are tough. They have Ridley and Etienne up against a stout Cleveland D and Herbert/Johnston up against a decent Denver D. I like DaUnderdog in this one to get win #9 and get back to the playoffs!
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 22
- Record: Advantage Sportsfreak at 13-9
- PPG Avg: Advantage Sportsfreak 110.54 to 100.91
Starrfavrerodg (7-6) vs U Don’t Know (5-8)
Starrfavrerodg needs the win and needs some help along the way if they are going to make the playoffs. They need to win their game and if BIGBOY! or pack slayer loses their game they would be in. If DaUnderdog is the only team to lose of the 8 win teams then they would also need to win and make sure they stay ahead of Sportsfreak in scoring. Ah, what a week this is going to be! U Don’t Know has struggled these last couple of weeks as they have lost two straight to push them out of contention. You knew it was going to be a long shot anyway but they just never could find the firepower to contend. Do they have one last win in them for this season or will Starrfavrerodg get the win and put the pressure on those 8 win teams to keep winning!?
Prediction:
This is no cake walk for Starrfavrerodg as they will be without their starting QB in Sam Howell as well as T. McLaurin. Not sure how big of a deal that is as McLaurin got them 0 points last week but he would still project as a starter for this team. They also may be without N Harris tonight. On the flip side, they may be getting A Jones back this week. U Don’t Know is going to role with their normal roster and hope for the best. Like most of the season I just don’t see them having enough this week. I like Starrfavrerodg to get to win #8.
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 4
- Record: Tied at 2-1
- PPG Avg: Advantage U Don’t Know 160.05 to 127.99