Keepers Fantasy Football – Final Four Preview
(1) U Don’t Know vs (6) pack slayer
U Don’t Know is fresh off a bye week and ready to go. U Don’t Know is coming off there best regular season ever and this is the first time they have been in the playoffs since the 2007 season. That is a long time so you have to wonder how this team will respond to the pressure of a big game like this. In 2007 that was their first season in the league and before 6 teams made the playoffs. That year U Don’t Know lost a close battle to Showboat in the Super Bowl. The #1 overall seed has a tough battle against a pack slayer team that got hot at just the right time and is looking to continue that all the way to a spot in the championship round. pack slayer was one of two teams to beat U Don’t Know in the regular season. Can they do it again to move on or will U Don’t Know continue this impressive run all the way to the Super Bowl?
Before I give my prediction let’s take an in depth look at this one. Let’s start with the QB position. pack slayer has Matt Ryan who has been consistently inconsistent the past 5 weeks and if that pattern continues then we are in for a 10 point game from Ryan. U Don’t Know is starting Rodgers this week who has been somewhat consistent but that hasn’t been very good. If they were playing against the same defense I think this one would be hard to pick but Rodgers is up against one of the better defenses in the league and Matt Ryan is not so I am giving the QB edge to pack slayer.
Now to the WR group, Thielen has had an amazing year in fact he is right now the #1 scoring WR in our league but since the bye in week 10 he hasn’t been the same. I do think however that he has a good matchup against Miami this week. Robert Woods & Allen Robinson could get you 10 points combined or 50. Boom or bust type for their WR2 and WR3. pack slayer has Julio Jones who ranks #3 in the league and Mike Evans who currently is at #10 and then you have Edelman who is no stranger to big games. I think this one is easy. The WR edge goes to pack slayer.
Let’s talk about the RB position. pack slayer has got where he is today because of this young rooke Phillip Lindsay who has been outstanding the last 4 weeks and Lamar Miller their RB2 has been solid the last 3 weeks. U Don’t Know counters with the best RB in the game right now in Todd Gurley and then a guy in Peyton Barber who has been given 10+ carries every week since week 6 but only once has he scored over 20 points (20.27 in week 11). He has however scored a TD in 3 of the last 4 games. I think Gurley has a big game on Sunday night so I am going to give the RB edge to U Don’t Know.
The TE spot is next, this is a hard one to evaluate as we don’t know the status of Conner. Sources tell me that it is likely that Conner sits another week so I am going to write this prediction based on that assumption. If Conner is out that gives Samuels the start but he has a tough game against the NE D. Ian Thomas just jumped into the fantasy radar the last couple of weeks with the injury to Greg Olson and he has been solid. Putting up Olsen like #’s. I don’t really like Samuels in this matchup this week and I think Thomas catches a lot of passes and scores as Carolina tries to keep up with the Saints. I am going to give the TE edge to U Don’t Know.
The flex spot is weak for both teams. pack slayer is rolling with DaeSean Hamilton who did have a solid game last week with E. Sanders out. U Don’t Know is starting Michael Gallup who has seen 22 targets over the past three weeks but only scored 15 fantasy points. He is truly a boom or bust kind of player as they tend to take a lot of deep shots to him. If they connect on a couple a 20 point game is easily in reach. If not, 5-8 points is probably where he lands. I expect Denver to run the ball a lot and I think a lot of attention is going to be on Cooper this week in Dallas. I am going to give the flex edge to U Don’t Know but that is just saying that I think Gallup has 10 points and Hamilton has 7. If one of these two players has a 20+ point game. I would expect that is the team that wins this game.
I am going to put the K, D, and DEF into one prediction. U Don’t Know is going with Boswell, Bears D and JJ Watt while pack slayer counters with Fairbairn, Vikings D, and Khalil Mack. The Bears D is one of the best but they are going against a Packers team that doesn’t turn the ball over. JJ Watt should be in line for a big day against the Jets. Mr. Mack had 28 points the last time he played the Packers and that was against the starting offensive line. Imagine what he might do against a backup offensive lineman? Watt and Mack cancel each other out. Bears D is much better then the Vikings but given the opponents I see this being a wash as well. Kickers.. well they are kickers but I would trust Fairbairn slightly more this week. So I guess I would give the slight edge to pack slayer.
That’s it. So who wins? They each won three categories… so I guess this ends in a tie? Well not so much. There is one glaring difference between these two teams and it is the WR’s and that edge goes to pack slayer. I am going to pick pack slayer to pull off yet another upset and knock off the # overall seed and move on to the Super Bowl!
(2) PackMan12 vs (4) BIGBOY!
The defending champ, BIGBOY! is back in the Final Four and now they have PackMan12 standing in their way to getting back to the Super Bowl for back to back years. PackMan12 is fresh off the bye but is coming into this game a bit beat up. That is never good as we get into must win situations but the same could be said for BIGBOY! as they have a couple of key starters who will be likely game time decisions. PackMan12 can score with the best of them. They are one of two teams that has had 4 weeks of 160 or more points scored. Want to know who the other team is? Yep, you guessed it. BIGBOY! If you like offense then I expect this is going to be one of the better games you could keep an eye on. Those injuries I mentioned could play a factor but I still expect a high scoring game between these two teams. So will PackMan12 get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2011 season or will BIGBOY! move on and get a chance to become the 4th team to ever win back to back championships? Check out the prediction to see my thoughts.
We have to start with the QB position. Mahomes has been ridiculous this season. He has scored 400 points on the year. The next closest QB is Drew Brees with 303. That kind of discrepancy is crazy especially when talking about the QB position. But we are looking just at this week. Mahomes for BIGBOY! is going up against a Chargers D that last time they faced Mahomes in week 1 gave up 30 points. PackMan12 is going with Big Ben against the Patriots and traditionally this is when Ben shines, Primetime game… against a rival. I think this could be close but there is no way I could give anyone the edge over Mahomes at this point. BIGBOY! has the edge at QB.
The WR position gets interesting and this is where injuries are going to play a potentially HUGE factor in this game. Since my sources are telling me that they expect both Tyreek Hill and OBJ to play I am going to make this prediction based on that. This has been a strength for PackMan12 all season as Tyreek Hill is the #2 scoring WR this season and JuJu is surprisingly #7. DeDe Westbrook has been solid at the WR 3 spot for them. BIGBOY! has OBJ who of course is one of the best at his position and a threat for 20 or more points every week. Tyler Boyd and Adam Humphries have been pleasant surprises but the edge at the WR position goes to PackMan12.
Now to the RB’s, anytime that a RB scores 60 points in one game (Derrick Henry) and is on the waiver wire you probably pick him up and in this case I guess you start him the following week. BIGBOY! did just that and in addition they also have one of the better RB’s from a fantasy perspective in McCaffrey. PackMan12 will counter that with Tevin Coleman and already as a rookie one of the better RB’s in the game in Saquon Barkley. I think that Barkley and McCaffrey cancel each other out in this one so now you are looking at Coleman and Henry and I give that edge to Coleman. PackMan12 therefore gets the edge at RB.
The TE position has BIGBOY! with one of the big surprises at this spot in Eric Ebron. Ebron comes into this meeting as the 4th best TE in terms of scoring in the league. PackMan12 counters with Austin Hooper who I would also consider a surprise as he sits as the 6th best TE in terms of scoring. I think this one however is obvious and BIGBOY! with Ebron has the edge.
Moving along to the flex position we have Alshon Jeffrey against Damian Williams. Jeffrey has had spurts where he has been really good but he has had far too many times where he has failed to get over the 10 point mark (6 games to be exact) and 9 if you count the first three weeks that he didn’t play at all. PackMan12 may get a boost this week with Williams taking the starting RB job with the injury to Ware. I am once again making an assumption and that is that Williams gets the start. If that happens I give the edge to PackMan12 at the flex spot and this could be looked at as one of the potential early indicators of who wins this game.
Now as before I am going to mesh the K, Def and D player. BIGBOY! is going with Bagdley at Kicker, Seattle D and A. Donald at the Defensive spot while PackMan12 has Zuerlein, Buffalo D and Kyle Fuller. I like Bagdley tonight against KC and Sea D against the 49ers. I am going to give the edge to BIGBOY! at these positions.
So like the first game I reviewed I have each team winning 3 areas and once again I am going to look at the WR position to pick my winner. I think that PackMan12 and their WR’s have the potential to take over a game with JuJu and Tyreek Hill. I expect both of these players to have big games and if they do then I think PackMan12 knocks off the reigning champ! I do think this is an extremely close game and will come down to McCaffrey’s performance on Monday night which on the flip side if you are BIGBOY! that is the guy you want to rely on as he could put up 40 points if he had to. I am looking forward to this one!
Good luck everyone!