We are down to the Final Four teams! Could we see for the first time ever a Super Bowl rematch of Rapids Plungers vs Bossman? Will the top seeds in U Don’t Know and Big Papa come out on top and guarantee we will have a first time champion? What a great week this is going to be and I can’t wait to see who comes out on top and books their ticket to the Super Bowl.
(1) U Don’t Know vs (5) Rapids Plungers
U Don’t Know is back in the playoffs for only their third time in their 15th season in the league. That isn’t a great number but when they make the playoffs they usually are one of the favorites to win it all. In 2007 they made the playoffs with a 11-3 record and finished as the #2 overall seed. That was their best year as they made it all the way to the Super Bowl before losing by 25 in the big game. In 2018 they made the playoffs as the #1 overall seed and lost in the first round to the #6 seeded pack slayer team. Now here we are in 2020 and once again U Don’t Know is the #1 overall seed and trying to do what they couldn’t the previous two years and that is win their first ever championship. Rapids Plungers knows all about chasing that elusive first championship as it took them in their 12th year before they got their first one. Now that they have it though they are not satisfied and they are trying to become the 5th team in league history to win back to back championships! So does U Don’t Know find a way to get back to the big game or does Rapids Plungers continue their recent dominance and move one win away from back to back titles!
We start with the QB position. Both teams have top tier QB’s and if you look back at the draft the one big thing that stands out is where they were drafted. D. Watson (Rapids Plungers) was taken in the 4th round while A. Rodgers (U Don’t Know) was snagged in the 7th. Rodgers on the season has 50 more points then Watson and this allowed U Don’t Know to add a few more pieces in the early rounds of the draft. For this week, Watson is always dangerous and the good news for Rapids Plungers is that he is capable of a 40 point game at any given time. What I don’t like this week is the matchup against the Colts along with the fact that ever since W. Fuller was lost for the season Watson has been averaging only 14.63 points per game. Rodgers on the other hand has been Mr. consistent this season. Outside of his 0.13 point performance against TB in week 6 and his 18.30 performance in week 2 against Det he has scored over 22 points in every other game this season including four 30 point weeks. I think there is a fairly clear edge for U Don’t Know at the QB position this week.
Now let’s move to the WR positions which should be a lot of fun. We have T. Hill (Rapids Plungers) who finished as the #2 scoring WR this season and then you have DK Metcalf and S. Diggs for U Don’t Know who both of them finished right behind hill as the #3 and #4 WR’s in the league. So if we stopped right there you can start to see why U Don’t Know is in the position they are as the #1 overall seed. They have the #2 ranked QB in the league to go along with the #3 and #4 ranked WR’s. Obviously just those two guys for U Don’t Know give them a huge advantage but T. Hill is the ultimate wild card in a win or go home type of game you want him on your side. On paper though this looks like a another relatively strong edge for U Don’t Know and their trio of WR’s.
Now to the RB position. I mentioned just a bit ago it is easy to see why U Don’t Know was the top overall seed given they have the #2 overall QB, the #3 and #4 WR’s AND just for good measure let’s now add the #2 overall RB in D. Henry. This team is loaded. I do like both M. Sanders and M. Davis (who by the way will go down as the top waiver wire pick up of the year) but D. Henry is too good and the team Henry is up against is allowing on average 25.39 points to RB’s this season. That is the worst in the league. Also, I didn’t even mention that J. Taylor for U Don’t Know is really starting to come on strong and he will be going up against a Texans defense that is right behind Detroit and gives up the 2nd most points to opposing RB’s at 24.88 avg points. The RB position also goes to U Don’t Know.
Ok, to the TE position. Rapids Plungers will have a new starter in C. Kmet this week. Kmet has looked good the past two weeks with 7 targets in each game but putting an unproven rookie in a big spot like this and expecting him to perform is asking a lot. This is U Don’t Know’s weakest position but then again it was and is only a strength for maybe two teams this year. Even though it is their weakest position their TE TJ Hockenson finished the season as the #3 TE in the league. He was however 60 points behind the #2 position so I guess you could say he was the best of the worst. There is a potential interesting development here and that is G. Kittle. Yes, Rapids Plungers snagged Kittle from the FA pool. If Kittle somehow surprises everyone and plays this week that is a HUGE development and Rapids Plungers chances of winning would go up drastically. I have been reaching out to my sources to get a sense for if he is going to play and as of right now we don’t have any definitive answer but it looks like next week seems like a more realistic chance of him playing. All that said, I am thinking I am going to ride the Kmet train on this one and I have him outscoring Hockenson 9 to 8. Rapids Plungers with the slight edge at TE.
Lastly, the Flex position. Both teams have solid players here which isn’t always the case. Dobbins (Rapids Plungers) has turned into a legitimate fantasy play each week while Evans despite having a down year still has 11 TD’s and is a legitimate threat each week. I expect this one to be close but I think Evans has the better game. I am going to give U Don’t Know the edge here too.
Like last week I picked most of the position battles to favor Rapids Plungers opponent. The difference between last week and this week is that last week I felt most of them were really close and I could have easily went with Rapids Plungers. The reason I picked Rapids Plungers last week is because I felt their WR group was far superior and was going to make up the difference. This week I picked mostly U Don’t Know to win the positional battles and I don’t see them as relatively close. The potential is there for Rapids Plungers as they have some home run hitters but I think they are going to need Watson and T. Hill to have monster games if they want to come out on top. I see U Don’t Know winning this one and moving on to their second Super Bowl appearance.
(2) Big Papa vs (3) Bossman
Big Papa is rested and ready to go coming off the first round bye. Big Papa is a somewhat regular in the playoffs as this is their 7th playoff berth in this their 17th year in the league. They have had success throughout the regular season and they even have had some success when they make the playoffs but what they haven’t been able to do is finish it off with a championship. They came close in 2016 when they finished as the #2 seed and made it to the Super Bowl only to get embarrassed with a 60 point loss. They are hoping this season is different and they can finally get their name on that trophy. It won’t be easy as they go up against a Bossman team that seems to be hitting their stride at just the right time! Throughout the history of the league this Bossman team has continually found ways to not only have successful regular seasons but then turn those into championship years. They have made the playoffs in 9 of their 14 seasons and made the Super Bowl in 4 of those 9 playoff seasons. They have won 2 championships and will be looking to become just the third team in league history with 3 or more championships. They also are only a win away from tying Pack Attack for the most postseason wins of all time! And if that isn’t enough let’s add one more thing. No team in league history has ever loss the Super Bowl and the next year made it back to the Super Bowl. Lots of historical items at stake with a Bossman win!
Let’s first take a look at the QB position. We have B. Mayfield (Big Papa) vs J. Allen (Bossman). Bossman has had Allen at QB all year and he has been great. He finished as the #4 QB in the league and has been a big part of Bossman’s success as of late. For Big Papa, they have been rotating QB’s all season as soon as they lost Prescott for the year in week 5. Prescott was on pace for an historic season from a production perspective before he got hurt and you can’t help but wonder how even better things could have been for Big Papa. Big Papa will be starting Mayfield for just the 3rd time all season but he seems to be the hot hand and they are going to try and ride it. Mayfield has been good but I don’t see that continuing like it has been. I think Allen and Bossman have a solid edge at the QB position.
It is odd to see a Bossman led team that isn’t stacked at WR. In years past it was usually a given that Bossman would win this position but this year is a bit different. They still have a solid trio as both R. Woods and C. Ridley are borderline top 10 plays this week but I would not call them confident top 10 plays. On the other side for Big Papa, it isn’t better as both Claypool and D. Parker have upside but they also don’t scare you that much and T. Higgins has lost a lot of value ever since Burrow went down to injury. I am more confident in Bossman’s WR’s this week then I am Big Papa. I am giving the edge at WR to Bossman.
Now let’s move to the RB position. This is where Bossman has the upper hand from all of the remaining four teams (U Don’t Know may be close). They are starting both D. Cook who finished as the #1 overall RB in the league and A. Ekeler who had he not been hurt early in the season likely finishes in the top 5. This week both Cook and Ekeler are top 5 RB plays and are capable of leading any team in a must win situation. Big Papa can’t compete with that. They have two solid RB’s in Melvin Gordon and C. Edwards-Helaire but to put it into perspective both Gordon and Edwards-Helaire’s combined point total of 268.72 is still behind D. Cook’s total for the year which is 293.23. Bossman with the big edge at RB.
Let’s take a look at the TE position. This is where Big Papa has a significant mismatch against all of the remaining teams. D. Waller (Big Papa) has been phenomenal and finished as the #2 TE in the league. Bossman TE, E. Engram seemingly has the skills to be a top tier TE however only two times this year has he scored in double digits. The TE position is a huge edge to Big Papa.
Lastly, the Flex spot. McKissic has been a pleasant surprise for Bossman these last few weeks as since week 9 he has been averaging right at that 10 point range. Big Papa is going with K. Drake in the flex. Drake seemingly hasn’t been as good as what some thought he might be this season but he has been solid. He finished as the 15th best RB in the league despite missing some action. I like Drake this week and I think Big Papa has the edge at the flex position.
So who wins? I know that Big Papa is the #2 seed and they are there for a reason but it really seems like this is Bossman’s game to lose. Come playoff time you are looking for those difference makers who can lead you to victory and I see more for Bossman then I do Big Papa. I think Bossman wins this one and gets back to the Super Bowl for the 2nd straight year.